Waalwijk 1–0 Telstar: Result & Stats

Waalwijk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Telstar

E. Hansson 27'

8/17/2018

Eerste Divisie · Round 1Mandemakers Stadion (Waalwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Waalwijk49%

×Draw23%

Telstar28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaalwijkExpected goals in this matchTelstar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.30

Waalwijk

1.79

Telstar

1.30

Waalwijk creates 38% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 132 away

1.88

creates per match

1.17

1.44

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Waalwijk

1.88

Telstar

1.17

allows per match

Waalwijk

1.44

Telstar

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waalwijk+0.00on par

Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Telstar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw

72%

Waalwijk or Telstar

77%

Draw or Telstar

51%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+

27%

Telstar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals

83%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

53%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

26%

Telstar 1+ goals

73%

Telstar 2+ goals

37%

Telstar 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

64%

Telstar (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.44 · 43 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.70 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 1.88 + Telstar defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.79

Telstar attack 1.17 + Waalwijk defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Waalwijk scores more

49%

level

23%

Telstar scores more

28%

Waalwijk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

E. Hansson↳ M. Bilate

63'

K. Scott← A. Najah

64'

S. Sno← Rodny Lopes Cabral

71'

D. Rienstra← K. Vermeulen

72'

D. Seys← A. Tahiri

81'

D. van Haaren← S. Lynen

90'

N. Baggerman← E. Hansson

Waalwijk

Telstar

1

6

21

5

2

▼

Cabral

4

Heertum

3

Iperen

8

▼

Lynen

15

▼

19

9

1

4

5

3

6

10

▼

Vermeulen

2

Gaari

11

▼

Tahiri

8

⚽

▼

Hansson

9

A

Bilate

7

Maatsen

Manager: F. Grim

71'▲D. Rienstra←▼K. Vermeulen

72'▲D. Seys←▼A. Tahiri

90'▲N. Baggerman←▼E. Hansson

Waalwijk substitutes

19Rienstra17Seys15Baggerman16Zielschot13Weert18Walian12Ndefe14Bakari

Manager: M. Snoei

63'▲K. Scott←▼A. Najah

64'▲S. Sno←▼Rodny Lopes Cabral

81'▲D. van Haaren←▼S. Lynen

Telstar substitutes

10Scott11Sno14Haaren18Rosheuvel13Bronkhorst23Groot29Doorm20Zonneveld33Kaloudis30Springer