Telstar 0–0 Waalwijk: Result & Stats

Telstar

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Waalwijk

3/24/2018

Eerste Divisie · Round 31Rabobank IJmond Stadion (Velsen-Zuid)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Telstar38%

×Draw24%

Waalwijk38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TelstarExpected goals in this matchWaalwijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.53

Telstar

1.52

Waalwijk

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 129 home / 58 away

1.49

creates per match

1.53

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Telstar

1.49

Waalwijk

1.53

allows per match

Telstar

1.53

Waalwijk

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par

Waalwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

Waalwijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Telstar or draw

62%

Telstar or Waalwijk

76%

Draw or Waalwijk

62%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+

18%

Waalwijk wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals

78%

Telstar 2+ goals

45%

Telstar 3+ goals

20%

Waalwijk 1+ goals

78%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

45%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)

50%

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.53 · 129 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.55 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.49 + Waalwijk defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Waalwijk attack 1.53 + Telstar defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Telstar scores more

38%

level

24%

Waalwijk scores more

38%

Telstar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Telstar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Junior← J. Van Heertum

63'

F. van der Linden← S. Sno

82'

I. van Eijma← J. Voskamp

84'

M. de Baar← C. Amatkarijo

90+1'

D. Rienstra← S. Greene

Telstar

Waalwijk

1

4

2

12

7

▼

Greene

8

Mulder

14

Baggerman

9

▼

Voskamp

10

Seys

19

▼

27

1

6

21

5

11

▼

Sno

2

Cabral

4

▼

3

47

10

7

Manager: M. Snoei

37'▲Junior←▼J. Van Heertum

63'▲F. van der Linden←▼S. Sno

Telstar substitutes

17Junior23Linden15Najah16Maaten20Balmy18Knol8Abdulahi14Zamouri

Manager: H. de Koning

82'▲I. van Eijma←▼J. Voskamp

84'▲M. de Baar←▼C. Amatkarijo

90+1'▲D. Rienstra←▼S. Greene

Waalwijk substitutes

15Eijma36Baar23Rienstra16Deckers18Meulensteen20Graauw22Zundert24Broek26Eisden

Eerste Divisie: Telstar 0–0 Waalwijk

Telstar and Waalwijk drew 0-0 in Eerste Divisie on March 24, 2018.

The match was played at Rabobank IJmond Stadion (Velsen-Zuid).

Telstar vs Waalwijk — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Eerste Divisie: Telstar 0–0 Waalwijk