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Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle — Eredivisie 2018

Waalwijk
Waalwijk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle
5/12/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 33Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Waalwijk46%
×Draw24%
PEC Zwolle30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waalwijk
1.68
PEC Zwolle
1.33

Waalwijk creates 26% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 116 away

creates per match

Waalwijk
1.33
PEC Zwolle
1.10

allows per match

Waalwijk
1.55
PEC Zwolle
2.03

finishing

Waalwijk+0.00on par
PEC Zwolle+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

PEC Zwolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw
70%
Waalwijk or PEC Zwolle
76%
Draw or PEC Zwolle
54%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+
24%
PEC Zwolle wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals
81%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
50%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
24%
PEC Zwolle 1+ goals
74%
PEC Zwolle 2+ goals
38%
PEC Zwolle 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)
60%
PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.55 · 98 matches

PEC Zwolle away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.03 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 1.33 + PEC Zwolle defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.68

PEC Zwolle attack 1.10 + Waalwijk defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Waalwijk scores more
46%
level
24%
PEC Zwolle scores more
30%

Waalwijk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle

Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle drew 1-1 in Eredivisie on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.