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PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk — Eredivisie 2018

PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Waalwijk
Waalwijk
3/29/2025EredivisieEredivisie · Round 27MAC³PARK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

PEC Zwolle48%
×Draw24%
Waalwijk28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEC Zwolle
1.74
Waalwijk
1.27

PEC Zwolle creates 37% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 98 away

creates per match

PEC Zwolle
1.36
Waalwijk
1.04

allows per match

PEC Zwolle
1.50
Waalwijk
2.12

finishing

PEC Zwolle+0.00on par
Waalwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle ↓

Waalwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle or draw
72%
PEC Zwolle or Waalwijk
76%
Draw or Waalwijk
52%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle wins by 2+
26%
Waalwijk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle 1+ goals
82%
PEC Zwolle 2+ goals
52%
PEC Zwolle 3+ goals
25%
Waalwijk 1+ goals
72%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
36%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)
63%
Waalwijk (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle attack 1.36 + Waalwijk defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.74

Waalwijk attack 1.04 + PEC Zwolle defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

PEC Zwolle scores more
48%
level
24%
Waalwijk scores more
28%

PEC Zwolle at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "PEC Zwolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk

PEC Zwolle beat Waalwijk 2-0 in Eredivisie on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at MAC³PARK Stadion in Zwolle.