Waalwijk 1–0 MVV: Result & Stats | Eerste Divisie

Waalwijk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

MVV

D. Cleonise 12'

11/25/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 17Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Waalwijk61%

×Draw19%

MVV19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaalwijkExpected goals in this matchMVV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.22

Waalwijk

2.30

MVV

1.22

Waalwijk creates 89% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

2.02

creates per match

0.85

1.59

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

Waalwijk

2.02

MVV

0.85

allows per match

Waalwijk

1.59

MVV

2.59

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

Waalwijk-0.22scores less

MVV-0.42scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

MVV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw

81%

Waalwijk or MVV

81%

Draw or MVV

39%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+

39%

MVV wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals

90%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

67%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

40%

MVV 1+ goals

70%

MVV 2+ goals

34%

MVV 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

76%

MVV (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.59 · 10 matches

MVV away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.59 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 2.02 + MVV defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.30

MVV attack 0.85 + Waalwijk defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Waalwijk scores more

61%

level

19%

MVV scores more

19%

Waalwijk at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

L. Postma

Waalwijk · D

8.0

Match Events

12'

21'

46'

54'

60'

R. Kuijpers← D. Cleonise

70'

J. Pawirodihardjo← T. Verheijen

70'

S. Braken← Camil Mmaee

79'

R. van der Venne← J. Uneken

79'

T. van der Leij← N. Held

83'

L. M. Tran← K. Sy

83'

D. Asante← N. El Basri

86'

G. Roemeratoe← H. Kuster

86'

O. Panneflek← C. Lokesa

90+6'

Tim van der Leij

90+2'

Richard van der Venne

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaalwijkMVV

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots10

2.67Expected Goals (xG)0.64

4Corners2

15Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots10

7On Target3

3Off Target2

5Blocked5

8Inside Box5

7Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

537Total Passes441

463Accurate Passes358

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Waalwijk vs MVV

Waalwijk beat MVV 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on November 25, 2025.

Goals: D. Cleonise (12').

Waalwijk controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.

Waalwijk vs MVV — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Waalwijk vs MVV