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Waalwijk vs MVV — Eerste Divisie 2018

Waalwijk
Waalwijk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
MVV
MVV
3/16/2018Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 30Mandemakers Stadion (Waalwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Waalwijk61%
×Draw19%
MVV19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waalwijk
2.30
MVV
1.22

Waalwijk creates 89% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Waalwijk
2.02
MVV
0.85

allows per match

Waalwijk
1.59
MVV
2.59

finishing

Waalwijk-0.22scores less
MVV-0.42scores less

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

MVV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw
81%
Waalwijk or MVV
81%
Draw or MVV
39%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+
39%
MVV wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals
90%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
67%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
40%
MVV 1+ goals
70%
MVV 2+ goals
34%
MVV 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)
76%
MVV (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.59 · 10 matches

MVV away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.59 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 2.02 + MVV defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.30

MVV attack 0.85 + Waalwijk defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Waalwijk scores more
61%
level
19%
MVV scores more
19%

Waalwijk at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Waalwijk 1–1 MVV

Waalwijk and MVV drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on March 16, 2018.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion (Waalwijk).