Waalwijk 2–2 Jong Utrecht: Result & Stats

Waalwijk

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Jong Utrecht

T. van der Leij 20', 6'

W. Kooy 90'

M. Ghaddari 90'

1/26/2026

Eerste Divisie · Round 22Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Waalwijk55%

×Draw22%

Jong Utrecht23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaalwijkExpected goals in this matchJong Utrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.22

Waalwijk

1.98

Jong Utrecht

1.22

Waalwijk creates 62% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 145 away

1.80

creates per match

1.08

1.35

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Waalwijk

1.80

Jong Utrecht

1.08

allows per match

Waalwijk

1.35

Jong Utrecht

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waalwijk+0.00on par

Jong Utrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Jong Utrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw

77%

Waalwijk or Jong Utrecht

78%

Draw or Jong Utrecht

45%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+

32%

Jong Utrecht wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals

86%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

59%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

31%

Jong Utrecht 1+ goals

70%

Jong Utrecht 2+ goals

34%

Jong Utrecht 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

70%

Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.35 · 54 matches

Jong Utrecht away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.16 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 1.80 + Jong Utrecht defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.98

Jong Utrecht attack 1.08 + Waalwijk defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Waalwijk scores more

55%

level

22%

Jong Utrecht scores more

23%

Waalwijk at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

M. Spenkelink

Waalwijk · G

9.5

Match Events

6'

T. van der Leij↳ J. Uneken

20'

T. van der Leij

46'

J. van Ommeren← R. El Arguioui

60'

N. Dundas← J. Sneijder

63'

Faissal Al Mazyani

69'

M. Witteveen← G. Roemeratoe

69'

N. Held← H. Kuster

78'

R. van der Venne← J. Familia-Castillo

78'

Y. van der Veen← J. Uneken

78'

J. van Riel← V. Plantinga

78'

B. Menzo← O. Agougil

85'

G. Arcos← T. den Boggende

88'

Q. van Beekveld← T. van der Leij

90+2'

Mark Spenkelink

90'

W. Kooy

90'

M. Ghaddari

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaalwijkJong

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots25

1.32Expected Goals (xG)2.73

1Corners8

11Fouls6

Shots

8Total Shots25

3On Target10

2Off Target6

3Blocked9

6Inside Box14

2Outside Box11

Passing

43%Possession57%

423Total Passes543

337Accurate Passes470

80%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls6

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides3

Eerste Divisie: Waalwijk 2–2 Jong Utrecht

Waalwijk and Jong Utrecht drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on January 26, 2026.

Goals: T. van der Leij (6', 20'), W. Kooy (90'), M. Ghaddari (90').

Jong Utrecht controlled possession (57%) and registered 25 shots to 8.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.

Waalwijk vs Jong Utrecht — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: Waalwijk 2–2 Jong Utrecht