Jong Utrecht 1–2 Waalwijk: Result & Stats

Jong Utrecht

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Waalwijk

S. Mokono 46'

S. Sow 16'

E. Hansson 8' (pen)

1/28/2019

Eerste Divisie · Round 22Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch (Utrecht)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Jong Utrecht34%

×Draw24%

Waalwijk42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong UtrechtExpected goals in this matchWaalwijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.59

Jong Utrecht

1.42

Waalwijk

1.59

Waalwijk creates 12% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 58 away

1.29

creates per match

1.53

1.66

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Jong Utrecht

1.29

Waalwijk

1.53

allows per match

Jong Utrecht

1.66

Waalwijk

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong Utrecht+0.00on par

Waalwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Utrecht ↓

Waalwijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Jong Utrecht or draw

58%

Jong Utrecht or Waalwijk

76%

Draw or Waalwijk

66%

Winning margin

Jong Utrecht wins by 2+

16%

Waalwijk wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Jong Utrecht 1+ goals

76%

Jong Utrecht 2+ goals

41%

Jong Utrecht 3+ goals

17%

Waalwijk 1+ goals

80%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

47%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)

45%

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Utrecht at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.66 · 147 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.55 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Utrecht attack 1.29 + Waalwijk defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.42

Waalwijk attack 1.53 + Jong Utrecht defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jong Utrecht scores more

34%

level

24%

Waalwijk scores more

42%

Waalwijk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Christopher Mamengi

8'

E. HanssonPenalty

11'

Jurien Gaari

16'

S. Sow↳ D. Maatsen

35'

Melle Meulensteen

46'

S. Mokono↳ M. Mallahi

67'

N. Baggerman← S. Spierings

71'

R. Bergkamp← S. Sow

72'

J. van der Velden← C. Mamengi

76'

T. Matthews← K. Lebon

78'

Jonas Arweiler

85'

R. El Yaakoubi← S. Mokono

87'

E. Walian← E. Hansson

Jong

Waalwijk

1

4

5

2

6

10

▼

Spierings

11

⚽

▼

Hansson

3

Meulenste

7

A

Maatsen

8

Tahiri

9

⚽

▼

Sow

1

Keijzer

3

Hoogenhou

2

⚽

▼

Mokono

14

▼

6

10

5

8

9

11

▼

Lebon

7

A

Mallahi

Manager: R. Pronk

72'▲J. van der Velden←▼C. Mamengi

76'▲T. Matthews←▼K. Lebon

85'▲R. El Yaakoubi←▼S. Mokono

Jong Utrecht substitutes

15Velden19Matthews12Yaakoubi20Vega21Lehaire17Kust16Houweling18Mulder13Lim

Manager: F. Grim

67'▲N. Baggerman←▼S. Spierings

71'▲R. Bergkamp←▼S. Sow

87'▲E. Walian←▼E. Hansson

Waalwijk substitutes

19Baggerman17Bergkamp14Walian18Ndefe12Weert16Zielschot15Bakari