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Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard — Eredivisie 2018

Waalwijk
Waalwijk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard
2/24/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 23Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Waalwijk48%
×Draw24%
Fortuna Sittard29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waalwijk
1.74
Fortuna Sittard
1.29

Waalwijk creates 35% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 132 away

creates per match

Waalwijk
1.33
Fortuna Sittard
1.02

allows per match

Waalwijk
1.55
Fortuna Sittard
2.15

finishing

Waalwijk+0.00on par
Fortuna Sittard+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Fortuna Sittard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw
71%
Waalwijk or Fortuna Sittard
76%
Draw or Fortuna Sittard
52%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+
26%
Fortuna Sittard wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals
82%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
52%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
25%
Fortuna Sittard 1+ goals
72%
Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals
37%
Fortuna Sittard 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)
63%
Fortuna Sittard (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.55 · 98 matches

Fortuna Sittard away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.15 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 1.33 + Fortuna Sittard defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.74

Fortuna Sittard attack 1.02 + Waalwijk defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Waalwijk scores more
48%
level
24%
Fortuna Sittard scores more
29%

Waalwijk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard

Fortuna Sittard beat Waalwijk 1-0 in Eredivisie on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.