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Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk — Eredivisie 2018

Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Waalwijk
Waalwijk
12/14/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 16Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Fortuna Sittard49%
×Draw23%
Waalwijk28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Sittard
1.79
Waalwijk
1.31

Fortuna Sittard creates 37% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 98 away

creates per match

Fortuna Sittard
1.45
Waalwijk
1.04

allows per match

Fortuna Sittard
1.58
Waalwijk
2.12

finishing

Fortuna Sittard+0.00on par
Waalwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Sittard ↓

Waalwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Fortuna Sittard or draw
72%
Fortuna Sittard or Waalwijk
77%
Draw or Waalwijk
51%

Winning margin

Fortuna Sittard wins by 2+
27%
Waalwijk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fortuna Sittard 1+ goals
83%
Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals
53%
Fortuna Sittard 3+ goals
26%
Waalwijk 1+ goals
73%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
38%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Sittard (draw refunded)
63%
Waalwijk (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Sittard at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.58 · 132 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Sittard attack 1.45 + Waalwijk defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.79

Waalwijk attack 1.04 + Fortuna Sittard defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fortuna Sittard scores more
49%
level
23%
Waalwijk scores more
28%

Fortuna Sittard at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fortuna Sittard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Fortuna Sittard 3–2 Waalwijk

Fortuna Sittard beat Waalwijk 3-2 in Eredivisie on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion in Sittard.