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Waalwijk vs Feyenoord — Eredivisie 2018

Waalwijk
Waalwijk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Feyenoord
Feyenoord
11/4/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 11Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Waalwijk27%
×Draw23%
Feyenoord50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waalwijk
1.29
Feyenoord
1.81

Feyenoord creates 40% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 131 away

creates per match

Waalwijk
1.33
Feyenoord
2.08

allows per match

Waalwijk
1.55
Feyenoord
1.24

finishing

Waalwijk+0.00on par
Feyenoord+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Feyenoord →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw
50%
Waalwijk or Feyenoord
77%
Draw or Feyenoord
73%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+
12%
Feyenoord wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals
72%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
37%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
14%
Feyenoord 1+ goals
84%
Feyenoord 2+ goals
54%
Feyenoord 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)
36%
Feyenoord (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.55 · 98 matches

Feyenoord away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.24 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 1.33 + Feyenoord defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Feyenoord attack 2.08 + Waalwijk defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Waalwijk scores more
27%
level
23%
Feyenoord scores more
50%

Feyenoord at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Feyenoord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Waalwijk vs Feyenoord

Feyenoord beat Waalwijk 2-1 in Eredivisie on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.