Feyenoord 5–1 Waalwijk: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

Feyenoord

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Waalwijk

4/9/2023

Eredivisie · Round 28Stadion Feijenoord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Feyenoord66%

×Draw19%

Waalwijk15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FeyenoordExpected goals in this matchWaalwijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

0.98

Feyenoord

2.24

Waalwijk

0.98

Feyenoord creates 129% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 98 away

2.35

creates per match

1.04

0.91

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Feyenoord

2.35

Waalwijk

1.04

allows per match

Feyenoord

0.91

Waalwijk

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Feyenoord+0.00on par

Waalwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feyenoord ↓

Waalwijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Feyenoord or draw

85%

Feyenoord or Waalwijk

81%

Draw or Waalwijk

34%

Winning margin

Feyenoord wins by 2+

42%

Waalwijk wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Feyenoord 1+ goals

89%

Feyenoord 2+ goals

65%

Feyenoord 3+ goals

38%

Waalwijk 1+ goals

62%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

26%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Feyenoord (draw refunded)

81%

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feyenoord at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.91 · 134 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feyenoord attack 2.35 + Waalwijk defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.24

Waalwijk attack 1.04 + Feyenoord defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Feyenoord scores more

66%

level

19%

Waalwijk scores more

15%

Feyenoord at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Feyenoord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff