Waalwijk 2–0 Almere City FC: Result & Stats

Waalwijk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Almere City FC

S. van der Water 58'

R. van der Venne 41'

11/3/2024

Eredivisie · Round 11Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Waalwijk47%

×Draw27%

Almere City FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaalwijkExpected goals in this matchAlmere City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.00

Waalwijk

1.44

Almere City FC

1.00

Waalwijk creates 44% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.19

creates per match

0.99

1.02

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Waalwijk

1.19

Almere City FC

0.99

allows per match

Waalwijk

1.02

Almere City FC

1.68

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Waalwijk+0.44scores more

Almere City FC-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Almere City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw

74%

Waalwijk or Almere City FC

73%

Draw or Almere City FC

53%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+

23%

Almere City FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals

76%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

42%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

18%

Almere City FC 1+ goals

63%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

26%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

64%

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 8 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.68 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 1.19 + Almere City FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Almere City FC attack 0.99 + Waalwijk defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Waalwijk scores more

47%

level

27%

Almere City FC scores more

26%

Waalwijk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

S. van der Water

Waalwijk · F

8.0

Match Events

17'

L. Wouters← J. Familia-Castillo

41'

R. van der Venne

46'

D. Cleonise← O. Zawada

55'

R. Providence← A. Tahiri

55'

Àlex Carbonell← T. Haye

55'

J. Lawrence← T. Barbet

58'

S. van der Water↳ D. Cleonise

70'

K. Hansen← L. Delaurier-Chaubet

74'

F. Al Mazyani← S. van der Water

80'

T. van de Loo← R. van der Venne

80'

A. Nalić← J. Kadile

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaalwijkAlmere

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots8

0.74Expected Goals (xG)0.32

4Corners4

11Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots8

3On Target0

6Off Target5

2Blocked3

5Inside Box3

6Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

361Total Passes453

266Accurate Passes349

74%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

-0.46Goals Prevented-0.46

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Offsides0