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Almere City FC vs Waalwijk — Eerste Divisie 2018

Almere City FC
Almere City FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Waalwijk
Waalwijk
L. Wouters 78' (OG)
R. van Eijma 25' (OG)
J. Uneken 28'
H. Kuster 16'
3/17/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 32Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Almere City FC36%
×Draw24%
Waalwijk40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City FC
1.52
Waalwijk
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Almere City FC
1.99
Waalwijk
1.77

allows per match

Almere City FC
1.45
Waalwijk
1.06

finishing

Almere City FC+0.68scores more
Waalwijk+0.63scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

Waalwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw
60%
Almere City FC or Waalwijk
76%
Draw or Waalwijk
64%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+
17%
Waalwijk wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals
78%
Almere City FC 2+ goals
45%
Almere City FC 3+ goals
20%
Waalwijk 1+ goals
80%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
48%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)
47%
Waalwijk (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.45 · 6 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.06 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 1.99 + Waalwijk defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.52

Waalwijk attack 1.77 + Almere City FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Almere City FC scores more
36%
level
24%
Waalwijk scores more
40%

Waalwijk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
H. KusterWaalwijkWaalwijk · F
7.9

Match Events

16'
H. Kuster↳ J. Uneken
25'
R. van EijmaOwn goal
28'
J. Uneken↳ N. Held
29'
Ferdy Druijf
36'
Nazjir Held
56'
J. Boetius← R. Fage
63'
E. Cornelisse← M. de Haan
63'
O. de Nijs← R. Providence
63'
I. Ghogli← J. Rijkhoff
70'
L. van Gelderen← J. Familia-Castillo
70'
Y. van der Veen← D. Cleonise
75'
J. Jacobs← H. el Dahri
75'
B. Huisman← F. Druijf
78'
L. WoutersOwn goal
79'
R. van Hedel← H. Kuster
79'
T. van der Leij← J. Uneken
86'
Immanuel Goghli
90+3'
Jamie Jacobs
90+3'
Yorem van der Veen

Possession

48%Almere

Shots

6Almere

Pass accuracy

51%Almere

Statistics

AlmereWaalwijk
Overview
48%Possession52%
6Total Shots10
0.49Expected Goals (xG)0.61
1Corners6
12Fouls7
Shots
6Total Shots10
1On Target2
4Off Target3
1Blocked5
2Inside Box6
4Outside Box4
Passing
48%Possession52%
425Total Passes456
343Accurate Passes360
81%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls7
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Eerste Divisie: Almere City FC 2–2 Waalwijk

Almere City FC and Waalwijk drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on March 17, 2026.

Goals: H. Kuster (16'), R. van Eijma (25' o.g.), J. Uneken (28'), L. Wouters (78' o.g.).

Waalwijk controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at Yanmar Stadion in Almere.