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Waalwijk vs Ajax — Eredivisie 2018

Waalwijk
Waalwijk
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Ajax
Ajax
12/6/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 7Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Waalwijk26%
×Draw22%
Ajax52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waalwijk
1.27
Ajax
1.90

Ajax creates 50% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 131 away

creates per match

Waalwijk
1.33
Ajax
2.25

allows per match

Waalwijk
1.55
Ajax
1.22

finishing

Waalwijk+0.00on par
Ajax+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Ajax →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw
48%
Waalwijk or Ajax
78%
Draw or Ajax
74%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+
11%
Ajax wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals
72%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
36%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
14%
Ajax 1+ goals
85%
Ajax 2+ goals
56%
Ajax 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)
33%
Ajax (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.55 · 98 matches

Ajax away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.22 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 1.33 + Ajax defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ajax attack 2.25 + Waalwijk defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Waalwijk scores more
26%
level
22%
Ajax scores more
52%

Ajax at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Waalwijk vs Ajax

Ajax beat Waalwijk 3-2 in Eredivisie on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.