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Ajax vs Waalwijk — Eredivisie 2018

Ajax
Ajax
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Waalwijk
Waalwijk
1/21/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 18Johan Cruijff Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Ajax71%
×Draw17%
Waalwijk12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax
2.50
Waalwijk
0.93

Ajax creates 169% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 98 away

creates per match

Ajax
2.88
Waalwijk
1.04

allows per match

Ajax
0.82
Waalwijk
2.12

finishing

Ajax+0.00on par
Waalwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax ↓

Waalwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ajax or draw
88%
Ajax or Waalwijk
83%
Draw or Waalwijk
29%

Winning margin

Ajax wins by 2+
49%
Waalwijk wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ajax 1+ goals
92%
Ajax 2+ goals
71%
Ajax 3+ goals
45%
Waalwijk 1+ goals
61%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
24%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ajax (draw refunded)
85%
Waalwijk (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.82 · 133 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax attack 2.88 + Waalwijk defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.50

Waalwijk attack 1.04 + Ajax defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ajax scores more
71%
level
17%
Waalwijk scores more
12%

Ajax at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Ajax 4–1 Waalwijk

Ajax beat Waalwijk 4-1 in Eredivisie on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam.