Waa Banjul Football 1–1 BST Galaxy: Result & Stats

Waa Banjul Football

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

BST Galaxy

11/17/2023

GFA League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Waa Banjul Football33%

×Draw34%

BST Galaxy33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Waa Banjul FootballExpected goals in this matchBST Galaxy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

0.85

Waa Banjul Football

0.84

BST Galaxy

0.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 45 away

0.66

creates per match

1.04

0.67

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Waa Banjul Football

0.66

BST Galaxy

1.04

allows per match

Waa Banjul Football

0.67

BST Galaxy

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waa Banjul Football+0.00on par

BST Galaxy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waa Banjul Football ↓

BST Galaxy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Waa Banjul Football or draw

67%

Waa Banjul Football or BST Galaxy

66%

Draw or BST Galaxy

67%

Winning margin

Waa Banjul Football wins by 2+

11%

BST Galaxy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Waa Banjul Football 1+ goals

57%

Waa Banjul Football 2+ goals

21%

Waa Banjul Football 3+ goals

5%

BST Galaxy 1+ goals

57%

BST Galaxy 2+ goals

21%

BST Galaxy 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Waa Banjul Football (draw refunded)

50%

BST Galaxy (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waa Banjul Football at home — creates 0.66, concedes 0.67 · 58 matches

BST Galaxy away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waa Banjul Football attack 0.66 + BST Galaxy defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.84

BST Galaxy attack 1.04 + Waa Banjul Football defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Waa Banjul Football scores more

33%

level

34%

BST Galaxy scores more

33%

Waa Banjul Football at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Waa Banjul Football will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff