BST Galaxy 1–1 Waa Banjul Football: Result & Stats

BST Galaxy

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Waa Banjul Football

3/20/2024

GFA League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

BST Galaxy37%

×Draw35%

Waa Banjul Football29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BST GalaxyExpected goals in this matchWaa Banjul Football

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

0.74

BST Galaxy

0.88

Waa Banjul Football

0.74

BST Galaxy creates 19% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 58 away

0.93

creates per match

0.59

0.89

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

BST Galaxy

0.93

Waa Banjul Football

0.59

allows per match

BST Galaxy

0.89

Waa Banjul Football

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BST Galaxy+0.00on par

Waa Banjul Football+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BST Galaxy ↓

Waa Banjul Football →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–115%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

BST Galaxy or draw

71%

BST Galaxy or Waa Banjul Football

65%

Draw or Waa Banjul Football

63%

Winning margin

BST Galaxy wins by 2+

13%

Waa Banjul Football wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

BST Galaxy 1+ goals

59%

BST Galaxy 2+ goals

22%

BST Galaxy 3+ goals

6%

Waa Banjul Football 1+ goals

52%

Waa Banjul Football 2+ goals

17%

Waa Banjul Football 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

BST Galaxy (draw refunded)

56%

Waa Banjul Football (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BST Galaxy at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Waa Banjul Football away — creates 0.59, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BST Galaxy attack 0.93 + Waa Banjul Football defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.88

Waa Banjul Football attack 0.59 + BST Galaxy defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

BST Galaxy scores more

37%

level

35%

Waa Banjul Football scores more

29%

BST Galaxy at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "BST Galaxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff