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Wa Boufarik vs Olympique Medea — League #187 2026

Wa Boufarik
Wa Boufarik
FT
3 – 1
Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
11/10/2023League #187League #187 · West - 4Stade Mohamed Reggaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Wa Boufarik53%
×Draw26%
Olympique Medea21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wa Boufarik
1.53
Olympique Medea
0.86

Wa Boufarik creates 78% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 27 away

creates per match

Wa Boufarik
1.17
Olympique Medea
0.89

allows per match

Wa Boufarik
0.83
Olympique Medea
1.89

finishing

Wa Boufarik+0.00on par
Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wa Boufarik ↓

Olympique Medea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wa Boufarik or draw
79%
Wa Boufarik or Olympique Medea
74%
Draw or Olympique Medea
47%

Winning margin

Wa Boufarik wins by 2+
27%
Olympique Medea wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wa Boufarik 1+ goals
78%
Wa Boufarik 2+ goals
45%
Wa Boufarik 3+ goals
20%
Olympique Medea 1+ goals
58%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
21%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Wa Boufarik (draw refunded)
71%
Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wa Boufarik at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Olympique Medea away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wa Boufarik attack 1.17 + Olympique Medea defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.53

Olympique Medea attack 0.89 + Wa Boufarik defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wa Boufarik scores more
53%
level
26%
Olympique Medea scores more
21%

Wa Boufarik at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Wa Boufarik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #187: Wa Boufarik 3–1 Olympique Medea

Wa Boufarik beat Olympique Medea 3-1 in League #187 on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed Reggaz in Boufarik.