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Olympique Medea vs Wa Boufarik — League #187 2026

Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wa Boufarik
Wa Boufarik
S. Baouche 83'
Unknown 73'
3/15/2024League #187League #187 · West - 19Stade Imam Lyes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Olympique Medea47%
×Draw28%
Wa Boufarik25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Medea
1.33
Wa Boufarik
0.88

Olympique Medea creates 51% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Olympique Medea
1.27
Wa Boufarik
0.20

allows per match

Olympique Medea
1.55
Wa Boufarik
1.40

finishing

Olympique Medea+0.00on par
Wa Boufarik+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Medea ↓

Wa Boufarik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Olympique Medea or draw
75%
Olympique Medea or Wa Boufarik
72%
Draw or Wa Boufarik
53%

Winning margin

Olympique Medea wins by 2+
22%
Wa Boufarik wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Olympique Medea 1+ goals
74%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
38%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
15%
Wa Boufarik 1+ goals
59%
Wa Boufarik 2+ goals
22%
Wa Boufarik 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
66%
Wa Boufarik (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Medea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Wa Boufarik away — creates 0.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Medea attack 1.27 + Wa Boufarik defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Wa Boufarik attack 0.20 + Olympique Medea defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Olympique Medea scores more
47%
level
28%
Wa Boufarik scores more
25%

Olympique Medea at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Olympique Medea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'
83'
S. Baouche

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Medea vs Wa Boufarik

Olympique Medea and Wa Boufarik drew 1-1 in League #187 on March 15, 2024.

Goals: ? (73'), S. Baouche (83').

The match was played at Stade Imam Lyes in Médéa.