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Vysoké Mýto vs Ústí nad Orlicí — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Vysoké Mýto
Vysoké Mýto
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ústí nad Orlicí
Ústí nad Orlicí
8/19/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 3Stadion Vysoké Mýto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vysoké Mýto43%
×Draw25%
Ústí nad Orlicí31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysoké Mýto
1.50
Ústí nad Orlicí
1.24

Vysoké Mýto creates 21% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 30 away

creates per match

Vysoké Mýto
2.06
Ústí nad Orlicí
1.60

allows per match

Vysoké Mýto
0.87
Ústí nad Orlicí
0.93

finishing

Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par
Ústí nad Orlicí+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysoké Mýto ↓

Ústí nad Orlicí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vysoké Mýto or draw
69%
Vysoké Mýto or Ústí nad Orlicí
75%
Draw or Ústí nad Orlicí
57%

Winning margin

Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+
21%
Ústí nad Orlicí wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals
78%
Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals
44%
Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals
19%
Ústí nad Orlicí 1+ goals
71%
Ústí nad Orlicí 2+ goals
35%
Ústí nad Orlicí 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)
58%
Ústí nad Orlicí (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysoké Mýto at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.87 · 70 matches

Ústí nad Orlicí away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.06 + Ústí nad Orlicí defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ústí nad Orlicí attack 1.60 + Vysoké Mýto defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vysoké Mýto scores more
43%
level
25%
Ústí nad Orlicí scores more
31%

Vysoké Mýto at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vysoké Mýto vs Ústí nad Orlicí

Ústí nad Orlicí beat Vysoké Mýto 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vysoké Mýto in Vysoké Mýto.