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Ústí nad Orlicí vs Vysoké Mýto — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Ústí nad Orlicí
Ústí nad Orlicí
FT
2 – 1
Vysoké Mýto
Vysoké Mýto
3/16/20244. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 18Stadion TJ Jiskra Ústí nad Orlicí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ústí nad Orlicí43%
×Draw23%
Vysoké Mýto34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ústí nad Orlicí
1.71
Vysoké Mýto
1.49

Ústí nad Orlicí creates 15% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 72 away

creates per match

Ústí nad Orlicí
2.10
Vysoké Mýto
2.10

allows per match

Ústí nad Orlicí
0.87
Vysoké Mýto
1.32

finishing

Ústí nad Orlicí+0.00on par
Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ústí nad Orlicí ↓

Vysoké Mýto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ústí nad Orlicí or draw
66%
Ústí nad Orlicí or Vysoké Mýto
77%
Draw or Vysoké Mýto
57%

Winning margin

Ústí nad Orlicí wins by 2+
22%
Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ústí nad Orlicí 1+ goals
82%
Ústí nad Orlicí 2+ goals
51%
Ústí nad Orlicí 3+ goals
24%
Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals
77%
Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals
44%
Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ústí nad Orlicí (draw refunded)
56%
Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ústí nad Orlicí at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

Vysoké Mýto away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ústí nad Orlicí attack 2.10 + Vysoké Mýto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.71

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.10 + Ústí nad Orlicí defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ústí nad Orlicí scores more
43%
level
23%
Vysoké Mýto scores more
34%

Ústí nad Orlicí at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ústí nad Orlicí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ústí nad Orlicí 2 – 1 Vysoké Mýto

Ústí nad Orlicí beat Vysoké Mýto 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Jiskra Ústí nad Orlicí in Ústí nad Orlicí.