Vysoké Mýto 2–0 Sparta Kutná Hora: Result & Stats

Vysoké Mýto

FT

2 – 0

Sparta Kutná Hora

8/24/2019

4. liga - Divizie C · Round 3Stadion Vysoké Mýto (Vysoké Mýto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vysoké Mýto77%

×Draw13%

Sparta Kutná Hora9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vysoké MýtoExpected goals in this matchSparta Kutná Hora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

0.97

Vysoké Mýto

3.00

Sparta Kutná Hora

0.97

Vysoké Mýto creates 209% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 27 away

2.06

creates per match

1.07

0.87

allows per match

3.93

creates per match

Vysoké Mýto

2.06

Sparta Kutná Hora

1.07

allows per match

Vysoké Mýto

0.87

Sparta Kutná Hora

3.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par

Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysoké Mýto ↓

Sparta Kutná Hora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Vysoké Mýto or draw

91%

Vysoké Mýto or Sparta Kutná Hora

87%

Draw or Sparta Kutná Hora

23%

Winning margin

Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+

58%

Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals

95%

Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals

79%

Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals

56%

Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals

62%

Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals

25%

Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)

89%

Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysoké Mýto at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.87 · 70 matches

Sparta Kutná Hora away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.06 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.00

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.07 + Vysoké Mýto defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Vysoké Mýto scores more

77%

level

13%

Sparta Kutná Hora scores more

9%

Vysoké Mýto at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff