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Sparta Kutná Hora vs Vysoké Mýto — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Sparta Kutná Hora
Sparta Kutná Hora
CANC
08:15
Vysoké Mýto
Vysoké Mýto
4/3/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 18Stadión Sparta ČKD Kutná Hora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sparta Kutná Hora28%
×Draw22%
Vysoké Mýto50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Kutná Hora
1.43
Vysoké Mýto
1.99

Vysoké Mýto creates 39% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 72 away

creates per match

Sparta Kutná Hora
1.54
Vysoké Mýto
2.10

allows per match

Sparta Kutná Hora
1.88
Vysoké Mýto
1.32

finishing

Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par
Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Kutná Hora ↓

Vysoké Mýto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sparta Kutná Hora or draw
50%
Sparta Kutná Hora or Vysoké Mýto
78%
Draw or Vysoké Mýto
72%

Winning margin

Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+
12%
Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals
76%
Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals
42%
Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals
17%
Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals
86%
Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals
59%
Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)
35%
Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Kutná Hora at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

Vysoké Mýto away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.54 + Vysoké Mýto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.10 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sparta Kutná Hora scores more
28%
level
22%
Vysoké Mýto scores more
50%

Vysoké Mýto at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sparta Kutná Hora host Vysoké Mýto

April 3, 2021: Sparta Kutná Hora take on Vysoké Mýto in 4. liga - Divizie C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sparta Kutná Hora host Vysoké Mýto at Stadión Sparta ČKD Kutná Hora.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.