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Vysoké Mýto vs Poříčany — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Vysoké Mýto
Vysoké Mýto
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Poříčany
Poříčany
3/12/20224. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 16Stadion Vysoké Mýto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Vysoké Mýto71%
×Draw17%
Poříčany12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysoké Mýto
2.42
Poříčany
0.90

Vysoké Mýto creates 169% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 26 away

creates per match

Vysoké Mýto
2.06
Poříčany
0.92

allows per match

Vysoké Mýto
0.87
Poříčany
2.77

finishing

Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par
Poříčany+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysoké Mýto ↓

Poříčany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vysoké Mýto or draw
88%
Vysoké Mýto or Poříčany
83%
Draw or Poříčany
29%

Winning margin

Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+
48%
Poříčany wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals
91%
Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals
69%
Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals
43%
Poříčany 1+ goals
59%
Poříčany 2+ goals
23%
Poříčany 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)
85%
Poříčany (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysoké Mýto at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.87 · 70 matches

Poříčany away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.06 + Poříčany defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.42

Poříčany attack 0.92 + Vysoké Mýto defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Vysoké Mýto scores more
71%
level
17%
Poříčany scores more
12%

Vysoké Mýto at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Vysoké Mýto 2–0 Poříčany

Vysoké Mýto beat Poříčany 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Vysoké Mýto in Vysoké Mýto.