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Poříčany vs Vysoké Mýto — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Poříčany
Poříčany
FT
0 – 5
Vysoké Mýto
Vysoké Mýto
8/1/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 1Poříčany - tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Poříčany29%
×Draw22%
Vysoké Mýto49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poříčany
1.46
Vysoké Mýto
1.95

Vysoké Mýto creates 34% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 72 away

creates per match

Poříčany
1.60
Vysoké Mýto
2.10

allows per match

Poříčany
1.80
Vysoké Mýto
1.32

finishing

Poříčany+0.00on par
Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poříčany ↓

Vysoké Mýto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Poříčany or draw
51%
Poříčany or Vysoké Mýto
78%
Draw or Vysoké Mýto
71%

Winning margin

Poříčany wins by 2+
13%
Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Poříčany 1+ goals
77%
Poříčany 2+ goals
43%
Poříčany 3+ goals
18%
Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals
86%
Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals
58%
Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Poříčany (draw refunded)
37%
Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poříčany at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

Vysoké Mýto away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poříčany attack 1.60 + Vysoké Mýto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.10 + Poříčany defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Poříčany scores more
29%
level
22%
Vysoké Mýto scores more
49%

Vysoké Mýto at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Poříčany 0–5 Vysoké Mýto

Vysoké Mýto beat Poříčany 5-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at Poříčany - tráva in Poříčany.