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Vysoké Mýto vs Horky nad Jizerou — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Vysoké Mýto
Vysoké Mýto
FT
1 – 0
Horky nad Jizerou
Horky nad Jizerou
9/7/20194. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 5Stadion Vysoké Mýto (Vysoké Mýto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Vysoké Mýto69%
×Draw18%
Horky nad Jizerou13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysoké Mýto
2.35
Horky nad Jizerou
0.92

Vysoké Mýto creates 155% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 25 away

creates per match

Vysoké Mýto
2.06
Horky nad Jizerou
0.96

allows per match

Vysoké Mýto
0.87
Horky nad Jizerou
2.64

finishing

Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par
Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysoké Mýto ↓

Horky nad Jizerou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Vysoké Mýto or draw
87%
Vysoké Mýto or Horky nad Jizerou
82%
Draw or Horky nad Jizerou
31%

Winning margin

Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+
46%
Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals
90%
Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals
68%
Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals
41%
Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
60%
Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
23%
Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)
84%
Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysoké Mýto at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.87 · 70 matches

Horky nad Jizerou away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.06 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.35

Horky nad Jizerou attack 0.96 + Vysoké Mýto defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Vysoké Mýto scores more
69%
level
18%
Horky nad Jizerou scores more
13%

Vysoké Mýto at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Vysoké Mýto 1–0 Horky nad Jizerou

Vysoké Mýto beat Horky nad Jizerou 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Vysoké Mýto (Vysoké Mýto).