Horky nad Jizerou 0–1 Vysoké Mýto: Result & Stats

Horky nad Jizerou

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vysoké Mýto

4/9/2022

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 20Hřiště FC Horky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Horky nad Jizerou35%

×Draw22%

Vysoké Mýto43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Horky nad JizerouExpected goals in this matchVysoké Mýto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.87

Horky nad Jizerou

1.68

Vysoké Mýto

1.87

Vysoké Mýto creates 11% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 72 away

2.04

creates per match

2.10

1.64

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Horky nad Jizerou

2.04

Vysoké Mýto

2.10

allows per match

Horky nad Jizerou

1.64

Vysoké Mýto

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horky nad Jizerou ↓

Vysoké Mýto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Horky nad Jizerou or draw

57%

Horky nad Jizerou or Vysoké Mýto

78%

Draw or Vysoké Mýto

65%

Winning margin

Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+

17%

Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals

81%

Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals

50%

Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals

24%

Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals

85%

Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals

56%

Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)

45%

Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horky nad Jizerou at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

Vysoké Mýto away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horky nad Jizerou attack 2.04 + Vysoké Mýto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.68

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.10 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Horky nad Jizerou scores more

35%

level

22%

Vysoké Mýto scores more

43%

Vysoké Mýto at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff