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Vysoké Mýto vs Cidlina Novy Bydzov — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Vysoké Mýto
Vysoké Mýto
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
10/1/20224. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 9Stadion Vysoké Mýto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vysoké Mýto58%
×Draw21%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysoké Mýto
2.00
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.08

Vysoké Mýto creates 85% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 30 away

creates per match

Vysoké Mýto
2.06
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.30

allows per match

Vysoké Mýto
0.87
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.93

finishing

Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par
Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysoké Mýto ↓

Cidlina Novy Bydzov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vysoké Mýto or draw
80%
Vysoké Mýto or Cidlina Novy Bydzov
79%
Draw or Cidlina Novy Bydzov
42%

Winning margin

Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+
35%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals
86%
Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals
59%
Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals
32%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals
66%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals
29%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)
74%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysoké Mýto at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.87 · 70 matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.06 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.00

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.30 + Vysoké Mýto defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vysoké Mýto scores more
58%
level
21%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more
20%

Vysoké Mýto at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Vysoké Mýto 1–1 Cidlina Novy Bydzov

Vysoké Mýto and Cidlina Novy Bydzov drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Vysoké Mýto in Vysoké Mýto.