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Cidlina Novy Bydzov vs Vysoké Mýto — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
Cidlina Novy Bydzov
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vysoké Mýto
Vysoké Mýto
4/29/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 24Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Cidlina Novy Bydzov30%
×Draw23%
Vysoké Mýto47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.38
Vysoké Mýto
1.77

Vysoké Mýto creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 72 away

creates per match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.43
Vysoké Mýto
2.10

allows per match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov
1.43
Vysoké Mýto
1.32

finishing

Cidlina Novy Bydzov+0.00on par
Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cidlina Novy Bydzov ↓

Vysoké Mýto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Cidlina Novy Bydzov or draw
53%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov or Vysoké Mýto
77%
Draw or Vysoké Mýto
70%

Winning margin

Cidlina Novy Bydzov wins by 2+
13%
Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Cidlina Novy Bydzov 1+ goals
75%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2+ goals
40%
Cidlina Novy Bydzov 3+ goals
16%
Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals
83%
Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals
53%
Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Cidlina Novy Bydzov (draw refunded)
39%
Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cidlina Novy Bydzov at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Vysoké Mýto away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cidlina Novy Bydzov attack 1.43 + Vysoké Mýto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.10 + Cidlina Novy Bydzov defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cidlina Novy Bydzov scores more
30%
level
23%
Vysoké Mýto scores more
47%

Vysoké Mýto at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Cidlina Novy Bydzov 2–1 Vysoké Mýto

Cidlina Novy Bydzov beat Vysoké Mýto 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Nový Bydžov.