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Vysočina Jihlava vs Vyškov — FNL 2019

Vysočina Jihlava
Vysočina Jihlava
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vyškov
Vyškov
7/26/2024FNLFNL · Round 2Stadion v Jiráskově ulici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava41%
×Draw26%
Vyškov32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava
1.38
Vyškov
1.19

Vysočina Jihlava creates 16% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 60 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava
1.54
Vyškov
1.17

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava
1.22
Vyškov
1.22

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava or draw
68%
Vysočina Jihlava or Vyškov
74%
Draw or Vyškov
59%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava wins by 2+
19%
Vyškov wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava 1+ goals
75%
Vysočina Jihlava 2+ goals
40%
Vysočina Jihlava 3+ goals
16%
Vyškov 1+ goals
70%
Vyškov 2+ goals
33%
Vyškov 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava (draw refunded)
56%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.22 · 103 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava attack 1.54 + Vyškov defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vyškov attack 1.17 + Vysočina Jihlava defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vysočina Jihlava scores more
41%
level
26%
Vyškov scores more
32%

Vysočina Jihlava at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Vysočina Jihlava 1–1 Vyškov

Vysočina Jihlava and Vyškov drew 1-1 in FNL on July 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion v Jiráskově ulici in Jihlava.