Vyškov 0–1 Vysočina Jihlava: Result & Stats | FNL

Vyškov

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vysočina Jihlava

5/8/2024

FNL · Round 27Sportovní areál Drnovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Vyškov50%

×Draw25%

Vysočina Jihlava25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VyškovExpected goals in this matchVysočina Jihlava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.09

Vyškov

1.64

Vysočina Jihlava

1.09

Vyškov creates 50% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 103 away

1.60

creates per match

1.16

1.03

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Vyškov

1.60

Vysočina Jihlava

1.16

allows per match

Vyškov

1.03

Vysočina Jihlava

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vyškov+0.00on par

Vysočina Jihlava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vyškov ↓

Vysočina Jihlava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vyškov or draw

75%

Vyškov or Vysočina Jihlava

75%

Draw or Vysočina Jihlava

50%

Winning margin

Vyškov wins by 2+

27%

Vysočina Jihlava wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vyškov 1+ goals

81%

Vyškov 2+ goals

49%

Vyškov 3+ goals

23%

Vysočina Jihlava 1+ goals

66%

Vysočina Jihlava 2+ goals

30%

Vysočina Jihlava 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vyškov (draw refunded)

66%

Vysočina Jihlava (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vyškov at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Vysočina Jihlava away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vyškov attack 1.60 + Vysočina Jihlava defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.64

Vysočina Jihlava attack 1.16 + Vyškov defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vyškov scores more

50%

level

25%

Vysočina Jihlava scores more

25%

Vyškov at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vyškov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff