Vysočina Jihlava 2–2 Vlašim: Result & Stats | FNL

Vysočina Jihlava

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Vlašim

J. Araujo-Wilson 85'

V. Beneš 45+2'

F. Lehký 90+5'

M. Šubert 40'

9/23/2024

FNL · Round 10Stadion v Jiráskově ulici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava45%

×Draw25%

Vlašim30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vysočina JihlavaExpected goals in this matchVlašim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.23

Vysočina Jihlava

1.56

Vlašim

1.23

Vysočina Jihlava creates 27% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 104 away

1.54

creates per match

1.24

1.22

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava

1.54

Vlašim

1.24

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava

1.22

Vlašim

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava+0.00on par

Vlašim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava ↓

Vlašim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava or draw

70%

Vysočina Jihlava or Vlašim

75%

Draw or Vlašim

55%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava wins by 2+

23%

Vlašim wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava 1+ goals

79%

Vysočina Jihlava 2+ goals

46%

Vysočina Jihlava 3+ goals

21%

Vlašim 1+ goals

71%

Vlašim 2+ goals

35%

Vlašim 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava (draw refunded)

60%

Vlašim (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.22 · 104 matches

Vlašim away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava attack 1.54 + Vlašim defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Vlašim attack 1.24 + Vysočina Jihlava defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vysočina Jihlava scores more

45%

level

25%

Vlašim scores more

30%

Vysočina Jihlava at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

D. Stetka

40'

45+2'

51'

55'

60'

A. Majer

63'

J. Araujo-Wilson← R. Křivánek

67'

J. Záviška← M. Šubert

73'

75'

77'

79'

85'

86'

M. Kolar

86'

M. Hošek← D. Farka

86'

E. Biegon← L. Musil

86'

Bernardo Rosa← J. Jeřábek

89'

B. Rosa

90+6'

A. Cermak

90+5'

F. Lehký

Vysočina

Vlašim

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Jarolim

63'▲J. Araujo-Wilson←▼R. Křivánek

79'▲T. Franěk←▼J. Selnar

86'▲M. Hošek←▼D. Farka

Vysočina Jihlava substitutes

Araujo-WilsonFraněkHošek

Manager: A. Majer

67'▲J. Záviška←▼M. Šubert

86'▲E. Biegon←▼L. Musil

86'▲Bernardo Rosa←▼J. Jeřábek

Vlašim substitutes

ZáviškaBiegonRosa

FNL: Vysočina Jihlava 2–2 Vlašim

Vysočina Jihlava and Vlašim drew 2-2 in FNL on September 23, 2024.

Goals: M. Šubert (40'), V. Beneš (45+2'), J. Araujo-Wilson (85'), F. Lehký (90+5').

The match was played at Stadion v Jiráskově ulici in Jihlava.

Vysočina Jihlava vs Vlašim — FNL 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FNL: Vysočina Jihlava 2–2 Vlašim