Vysočina Jihlava 0–1 České Budějovice

Vysočina Jihlava

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

České Budějovice

10/17/2025

FNL · Round 13Stadion v Jiraskove ulici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava49%

×Draw24%

České Budějovice26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vysočina JihlavaExpected goals in this matchČeské Budějovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.14

Vysočina Jihlava

1.65

České Budějovice

1.14

Vysočina Jihlava creates 45% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 16 away

1.54

creates per match

1.06

1.22

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava

1.54

České Budějovice

1.06

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava

1.22

České Budějovice

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava+0.00on par

České Budějovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava ↓

České Budějovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava or draw

74%

Vysočina Jihlava or České Budějovice

76%

Draw or České Budějovice

51%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava wins by 2+

26%

České Budějovice wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava 1+ goals

81%

Vysočina Jihlava 2+ goals

49%

Vysočina Jihlava 3+ goals

23%

České Budějovice 1+ goals

68%

České Budějovice 2+ goals

32%

České Budějovice 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava (draw refunded)

65%

České Budějovice (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.22 · 103 matches

České Budějovice away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava attack 1.54 + České Budějovice defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

České Budějovice attack 1.06 + Vysočina Jihlava defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vysočina Jihlava scores more

49%

level

24%

České Budějovice scores more

26%

Vysočina Jihlava at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff