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České Budějovice vs Vysočina Jihlava — FNL 2019

České Budějovice
České Budějovice
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vysočina Jihlava
Vysočina Jihlava
5/6/2026FNLFNL · Round 27Strelecky ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

České Budějovice44%
×Draw26%
Vysočina Jihlava30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice
1.44
Vysočina Jihlava
1.15

České Budějovice creates 25% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 103 away

creates per match

České Budějovice
1.19
Vysočina Jihlava
1.16

allows per match

České Budějovice
1.13
Vysočina Jihlava
1.68

finishing

České Budějovice+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice ↓

Vysočina Jihlava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

České Budějovice or draw
70%
České Budějovice or Vysočina Jihlava
74%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava
56%

Winning margin

České Budějovice wins by 2+
21%
Vysočina Jihlava wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

České Budějovice 1+ goals
76%
České Budějovice 2+ goals
42%
České Budějovice 3+ goals
18%
Vysočina Jihlava 1+ goals
68%
Vysočina Jihlava 2+ goals
32%
Vysočina Jihlava 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice (draw refunded)
59%
Vysočina Jihlava (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Vysočina Jihlava away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice attack 1.19 + Vysočina Jihlava defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Vysočina Jihlava attack 1.16 + České Budějovice defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

České Budějovice scores more
44%
level
26%
Vysočina Jihlava scores more
30%

České Budějovice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "České Budějovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: České Budějovice 3–1 Vysočina Jihlava

České Budějovice beat Vysočina Jihlava 3-1 in FNL on May 6, 2026.

The match was played at Strelecky ostrov in Ceske Budejovice.