Vysočina Jihlava U19 2–0 Jablonec U19

Vysočina Jihlava U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jablonec U19

M. Novak 47'

D. Bouchner 6'

5/23/2025

1. Liga U19 · Round 27Stadion Na Stoupách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava U1948%

×Draw22%

Jablonec U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vysočina Jihlava U19Expected goals in this matchJablonec U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.52

Vysočina Jihlava U19

1.95

Jablonec U19

1.52

Vysočina Jihlava U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

1.63

creates per match

1.20

1.85

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava U19

1.63

Jablonec U19

1.20

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava U19

1.85

Jablonec U19

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava U19+0.00on par

Jablonec U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava U19 ↓

Jablonec U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava U19 or draw

70%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 or Jablonec U19

78%

Draw or Jablonec U19

52%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava U19 wins by 2+

27%

Jablonec U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava U19 1+ goals

86%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 2+ goals

58%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 3+ goals

31%

Jablonec U19 1+ goals

78%

Jablonec U19 2+ goals

45%

Jablonec U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Jablonec U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.85 · 60 matches

Jablonec U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava U19 attack 1.63 + Jablonec U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.95

Jablonec U19 attack 1.20 + Vysočina Jihlava U19 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vysočina Jihlava U19 scores more

48%

level

22%

Jablonec U19 scores more

30%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

D. Bouchner

14'

J. Matousek← J. Matousek

47'

M. Novak

63'

P. Kucera← P. Kucera

63'

D. Kuhn← D. Kuhn

67'

F. Vesely

68'

D. Pospichal← D. Pospichal

71'

V. Pancev← V. Pancev

71'

S. A. Emmanuel← S. A. Emmanuel

80'

B. Puza← B. Puza

80'

J. Exner← J. Exner

86'

T. Ritter← T. Ritter

86'

K. Jancok← K. Jancok

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff