Jablonec U19 0–1 Vysočina Jihlava U19

Jablonec U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vysočina Jihlava U19

J. Rais 73'

10/26/2024

1. Liga U19 · Round 12Základní škola Mozartova UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jablonec U1933%

×Draw22%

Vysočina Jihlava U1945%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jablonec U19Expected goals in this matchVysočina Jihlava U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.91

Jablonec U19

1.61

Vysočina Jihlava U19

1.91

Vysočina Jihlava U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

0.87

creates per match

1.15

2.67

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Jablonec U19

0.87

Vysočina Jihlava U19

1.15

allows per match

Jablonec U19

2.67

Vysočina Jihlava U19

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jablonec U19+0.00on par

Vysočina Jihlava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jablonec U19 ↓

Vysočina Jihlava U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Jablonec U19 or draw

55%

Jablonec U19 or Vysočina Jihlava U19

78%

Draw or Vysočina Jihlava U19

67%

Winning margin

Jablonec U19 wins by 2+

16%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Jablonec U19 1+ goals

80%

Jablonec U19 2+ goals

48%

Jablonec U19 3+ goals

22%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 1+ goals

85%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 2+ goals

57%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Jablonec U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jablonec U19 at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

Vysočina Jihlava U19 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.35 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jablonec U19 attack 0.87 + Vysočina Jihlava U19 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.61

Vysočina Jihlava U19 attack 1.15 + Jablonec U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jablonec U19 scores more

33%

level

22%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 scores more

45%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

O. Uchechi

46'

R. Palan← R. Palan

46'

J. Rais← J. Rais

61'

M. Manasek← M. Manasek

64'

M. Vopat← M. Vopat

67'

←

71'

P. Ostrovka← P. Ostrovka

73'

J. Rais

76'

P. Svoboda← P. Svoboda

86'

B. Puza← B. Puza

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff