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Vysočina Jihlava U19 vs Frýdek-Místek U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Vysočina Jihlava U19
Vysočina Jihlava U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Frýdek-Místek U19
Frýdek-Místek U19
K. Hudak 90+3' (pen)
D. Bouchner 45'
P. Stocek 8'
J. Jedlicka 68'
5/4/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 25Stadion Na Stoupách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava U1957%
×Draw20%
Frýdek-Místek U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava U19
2.25
Frýdek-Místek U19
1.36

Vysočina Jihlava U19 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava U19
1.63
Frýdek-Místek U19
0.87

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava U19
1.85
Frýdek-Místek U19
2.87

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava U19+0.00on par
Frýdek-Místek U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava U19 ↓

Frýdek-Místek U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava U19 or draw
77%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 or Frýdek-Místek U19
80%
Draw or Frýdek-Místek U19
43%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava U19 wins by 2+
35%
Frýdek-Místek U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava U19 1+ goals
89%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 2+ goals
65%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 3+ goals
39%
Frýdek-Místek U19 1+ goals
74%
Frýdek-Místek U19 2+ goals
39%
Frýdek-Místek U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava U19 (draw refunded)
72%
Frýdek-Místek U19 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.85 · 60 matches

Frýdek-Místek U19 away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava U19 attack 1.63 + Frýdek-Místek U19 defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.25

Frýdek-Místek U19 attack 0.87 + Vysočina Jihlava U19 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vysočina Jihlava U19 scores more
57%
level
20%
Frýdek-Místek U19 scores more
23%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
P. Stocek
45'
D. Bouchner
68'
J. Jedlicka
90+3'
K. HudakPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Vysočina Jihlava U19 3–1 Frýdek-Místek U19

Vysočina Jihlava U19 beat Frýdek-Místek U19 3-1 in 1. Liga U19 on May 4, 2024.

Goals: P. Stocek (8'), D. Bouchner (45'), J. Jedlicka (68'), K. Hudak (90+3' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Na Stoupách in Jihlava.