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Frýdek-Místek U19 vs Vysočina Jihlava U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Frýdek-Místek U19
Frýdek-Místek U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vysočina Jihlava U19
Vysočina Jihlava U19
J. Jedlicka 89'
D. Maksymchuk 88'
A. Krystof 66'
J. Haala 40'
10/7/20231. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 10Stadion Stovky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Frýdek-Místek U1951%
×Draw24%
Vysočina Jihlava U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frýdek-Místek U19
1.71
Vysočina Jihlava U19
1.14

Frýdek-Místek U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Frýdek-Místek U19
1.07
Vysočina Jihlava U19
1.15

allows per match

Frýdek-Místek U19
1.13
Vysočina Jihlava U19
2.35

finishing

Frýdek-Místek U19+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdek-Místek U19 ↓

Vysočina Jihlava U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Frýdek-Místek U19 or draw
75%
Frýdek-Místek U19 or Vysočina Jihlava U19
76%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava U19
49%

Winning margin

Frýdek-Místek U19 wins by 2+
27%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Frýdek-Místek U19 1+ goals
82%
Frýdek-Místek U19 2+ goals
51%
Frýdek-Místek U19 3+ goals
24%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 1+ goals
68%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 2+ goals
32%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Frýdek-Místek U19 (draw refunded)
67%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdek-Místek U19 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Vysočina Jihlava U19 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.35 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdek-Místek U19 attack 1.07 + Vysočina Jihlava U19 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.71

Vysočina Jihlava U19 attack 1.15 + Frýdek-Místek U19 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Frýdek-Místek U19 scores more
51%
level
24%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 scores more
25%

Frýdek-Místek U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Frýdek-Místek U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
J. Haala
66'
A. Krystof
88'
D. Maksymchuk
89'
J. Jedlicka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frýdek-Místek U19 vs Vysočina Jihlava U19

Frýdek-Místek U19 and Vysočina Jihlava U19 drew 2-2 in 1. Liga U19 on October 7, 2023.

Goals: J. Haala (40'), A. Krystof (66'), D. Maksymchuk (88'), J. Jedlicka (89').

The match was played at Stadion Stovky in Frýdek-Místek.