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Vysočina Jihlava II vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
J. Kiska 90+1'
P. Chovan 62'
5/21/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 29Stadion Na Stoupách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II31%
×Draw21%
Viktoria Otrokovice47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.65
Viktoria Otrokovice
2.05

Viktoria Otrokovice creates 24% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 66 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.29
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.39

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.71
Viktoria Otrokovice
2.00

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw
53%
Vysočina Jihlava II or Viktoria Otrokovice
79%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
69%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
15%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
81%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
49%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
23%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
87%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
61%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
40%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 21 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.00 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 1.29 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.39 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
31%
level
21%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
47%

Viktoria Otrokovice at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Viktoria Otrokovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
S. Prokaj
46'
O. Putyera← O. Putyera
46'
P. Chovan← P. Chovan
46'
T. Franek← T. Franek
48'
P. Mikuska
48'
A. Hretsaichuk
54'
S. Nemecek
60'
P. Simr← P. Simr
60'
P. Vacek← P. Vacek
62'
P. Chovan
66'
K. Crhan← K. Crhan
73'
M. Walter← M. Walter
82'
M. Vintr← M. Fiala
82'
F. Prikryl
90+1'
J. Kiska

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vysočina Jihlava II vs Viktoria Otrokovice

Viktoria Otrokovice beat Vysočina Jihlava II 2-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on May 21, 2022.

Goals: P. Chovan (62'), J. Kiska (90+1').

The match was played at Stadion Na Stoupách in Jihlava.