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Viktoria Otrokovice vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
CANC
09:15
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
3/21/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 12Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Viktoria Otrokovice59%
×Draw20%
Vysočina Jihlava II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Otrokovice
2.18
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.23

Viktoria Otrokovice creates 77% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 23 away

creates per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.62
Vysočina Jihlava II
0.70

allows per match

Viktoria Otrokovice
1.77
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.74

finishing

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Otrokovice ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Viktoria Otrokovice or draw
79%
Viktoria Otrokovice or Vysočina Jihlava II
80%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
41%

Winning margin

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
36%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
89%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
64%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
37%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
71%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
35%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
74%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Otrokovice at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.62 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.18

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 0.70 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
59%
level
20%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
21%

Viktoria Otrokovice at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Viktoria Otrokovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Viktoria Otrokovice host Vysočina Jihlava II

March 21, 2021: Viktoria Otrokovice take on Vysočina Jihlava II in 3. liga - MSFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Viktoria Otrokovice host Vysočina Jihlava II at Stadion FC Viktoria Otrokovice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.