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Vysočina Jihlava II vs Velké Meziříčí — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
FT
3 – 3
Velké Meziříčí
Velké Meziříčí
S. Nemecek 55'
A. Ritter 48'
J. Ruzicka 24'
R. Suta 45'
M. Sysel 23'
R. Demeter 13'
9/8/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 17Stadion Štoky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II39%
×Draw21%
Velké Meziříčí40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.91
Velké Meziříčí
1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 49 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.29
Velké Meziříčí
1.18

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.71
Velké Meziříčí
2.53

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par
Velké Meziříčí+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Velké Meziříčí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw
60%
Vysočina Jihlava II or Velké Meziříčí
79%
Draw or Velké Meziříčí
61%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
21%
Velké Meziříčí wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
85%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
57%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
30%
Velké Meziříčí 1+ goals
86%
Velké Meziříčí 2+ goals
58%
Velké Meziříčí 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
49%
Velké Meziříčí (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 21 matches

Velké Meziříčí away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 1.29 + Velké Meziříčí defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.91

Velké Meziříčí attack 1.18 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
39%
level
21%
Velké Meziříčí scores more
40%

Velké Meziříčí at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Velké Meziříčí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
M. Fila
13'
R. Demeter
18'
J. Ruzicka
23'
M. Sysel↳ R. Demeter
24'
J. Ruzicka
45'
R. Suta
46'
M. Malata← M. Malata
46'
Tall Mame← Tall Mame
48'
A. Ritter
51'
A. Plichta
55'
S. Nemecek
59'
V. Havlin
59'
R. Demeter
59'
J. Ruzicka
59'
J. Ruzicka
72'
P. Mezlik← P. Mezlik
72'
M. Malata← M. Malata
78'
P. Mucha
79'
L. Kolcava
79'
A. Jagrik
82'
K. Crhan← K. Crhan
90'
D. Farka← D. Farka
90+3'
T. Lat← T. Lat

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vysočina Jihlava II vs Velké Meziříčí

Vysočina Jihlava II and Velké Meziříčí drew 3-3 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 8, 2021.

Goals: R. Demeter (13'), M. Sysel (23'), J. Ruzicka (24'), R. Suta (45'), A. Ritter (48'), S. Nemecek (55').

The match was played at Stadion Štoky in Štoky.