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Velké Meziříčí vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Velké Meziříčí
Velké Meziříčí
FT
0 – 5
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
M. Sevcik 68', 20'
V. Havlin 62'
A. Ritter 53' (pen)
Unknown 45+2'
10/10/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 10Stadión U Tržiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Velké Meziříčí63%
×Draw19%
Vysočina Jihlava II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velké Meziříčí
2.29
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.15

Velké Meziříčí creates 99% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 23 away

creates per match

Velké Meziříčí
1.83
Vysočina Jihlava II
0.70

allows per match

Velké Meziříčí
1.60
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.74

finishing

Velké Meziříčí+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velké Meziříčí ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Velké Meziříčí or draw
82%
Velké Meziříčí or Vysočina Jihlava II
81%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
37%

Winning margin

Velké Meziříčí wins by 2+
40%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Velké Meziříčí 1+ goals
90%
Velké Meziříčí 2+ goals
66%
Velké Meziříčí 3+ goals
40%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
68%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
32%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Velké Meziříčí (draw refunded)
78%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velké Meziříčí at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.60 · 47 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velké Meziříčí attack 1.83 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.29

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 0.70 + Velké Meziříčí defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Velké Meziříčí scores more
63%
level
19%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
18%

Velké Meziříčí at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Velké Meziříčí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
M. Sevcik
45+2'
46'
P. Mezlik← P. Partl
46'
L. Kolcava← L. Kolcava
51'
T. Lat← T. Lat
52'
J. Nedved
53'
A. RitterPenalty
58'
R. Suta← M. Malata
58'
T. Franek← T. Franek
62'
V. Havlin
68'
M. Sevcik
72'
M. Malata← M. Malata
78'
P. Dolejs← M. Sysel
78'
M. Turecek← M. Zubek
81'
J. Vacha← J. Vacha
83'
R. Demeter← V. Crkal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velké Meziříčí vs Vysočina Jihlava II

Vysočina Jihlava II beat Velké Meziříčí 5-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on October 10, 2020.

Goals: M. Sevcik (20', 68'), ? (45+2'), A. Ritter (53' pen), V. Havlin (62').

The match was played at Stadión U Tržiště in Velké Meziříčí.