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Vysočina Jihlava II vs Uherský Brod — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
FT
1 – 0
Uherský Brod
Uherský Brod
V. Kristal 59'
10/23/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 13Stadion Na Stoupách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II38%
×Draw22%
Uherský Brod40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.78
Uherský Brod
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 61 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.29
Uherský Brod
0.93

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.71
Uherský Brod
2.28

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par
Uherský Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Uherský Brod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw
60%
Vysočina Jihlava II or Uherský Brod
78%
Draw or Uherský Brod
62%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
20%
Uherský Brod wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
83%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
53%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
26%
Uherský Brod 1+ goals
84%
Uherský Brod 2+ goals
54%
Uherský Brod 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
49%
Uherský Brod (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 21 matches

Uherský Brod away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 1.29 + Uherský Brod defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.78

Uherský Brod attack 0.93 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
38%
level
22%
Uherský Brod scores more
40%

Uherský Brod at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Uherský Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
F. Shudeiwa← F. Shudeiwa
59'
V. Kristal
63'
A. Ritter
65'
M. A. Laye Tall
65'
M. Mancik← M. Mancik
65'
L. Jaronek← L. Jaronek
69'
F. Jicha
73'
J. Araujo-Wilson← J. Araujo-Wilson
78'
T. Franek
85'
R. David← R. David
87'
M. Mancik
89'
S. Nemecek← S. Nemecek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vysočina Jihlava II vs Uherský Brod

Vysočina Jihlava II beat Uherský Brod 1-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on October 23, 2021.

Goals: V. Kristal (59').

The match was played at Stadion Na Stoupách in Jihlava.