Uherský Brod 3–0 Vysočina Jihlava II

Uherský Brod

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vysočina Jihlava II

M. Malenovsky 79'

M. Mancik 72'

M. Lorenc 45'

5/28/2022

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 30Orelský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Uherský Brod64%

×Draw20%

Vysočina Jihlava II16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uherský BrodExpected goals in this matchVysočina Jihlava II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.98

Uherský Brod

2.17

Vysočina Jihlava II

0.98

Uherský Brod creates 121% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 23 away

1.59

creates per match

0.70

1.26

allows per match

2.74

creates per match

Uherský Brod

1.59

Vysočina Jihlava II

0.70

allows per match

Uherský Brod

1.26

Vysočina Jihlava II

2.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uherský Brod+0.00on par

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uherský Brod ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Uherský Brod or draw

84%

Uherský Brod or Vysočina Jihlava II

80%

Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II

36%

Winning margin

Uherský Brod wins by 2+

41%

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Uherský Brod 1+ goals

89%

Uherský Brod 2+ goals

64%

Uherský Brod 3+ goals

36%

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals

62%

Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals

26%

Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Uherský Brod (draw refunded)

80%

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uherský Brod at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uherský Brod attack 1.59 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.17

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 0.70 + Uherský Brod defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Uherský Brod scores more

64%

level

20%

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more

16%

Uherský Brod at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Uherský Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

M. Lorenc

60'

P. Smatelka← P. Smatelka

60'

O. Strachon← O. Strachon

60'

M. Malenovsky← M. Malenovsky

69'

D. Veneny

72'

M. Mancik

77'

K. Crhan← K. Crhan

77'

D. Marsik← D. Marsik

79'

M. Malenovsky

79'

J. Pekarek← J. Pekarek

81'

J. Zamecnik← J. Zamecnik

85'

V. Wiederlechner← V. Wiederlechner

85'

M. Walter← M. Walter

86'

A. Bartoncik← A. Bartoncik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff