Vysočina Jihlava II 0–1 Start Brno: Result & Stats

Vysočina Jihlava II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Start Brno

5/21/2023

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 23Stadion Na Stoupách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II42%

×Draw22%

Start Brno36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vysočina Jihlava IIExpected goals in this matchStart Brno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.75

Vysočina Jihlava II

1.90

Start Brno

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 37 away

2.50

creates per match

2.19

1.30

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II

2.50

Start Brno

2.19

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II

1.30

Start Brno

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Start Brno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Start Brno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw

64%

Vysočina Jihlava II or Start Brno

78%

Draw or Start Brno

58%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+

23%

Start Brno wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals

85%

Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals

56%

Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals

29%

Start Brno 1+ goals

83%

Start Brno 2+ goals

52%

Start Brno 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)

54%

Start Brno (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Start Brno away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.50 + Start Brno defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.90

Start Brno attack 2.19 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more

42%

level

22%

Start Brno scores more

36%

Vysočina Jihlava II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff