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Start Brno vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Start Brno
Start Brno
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
10/8/20224. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 10Hřiště Loosova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Start Brno42%
×Draw22%
Vysočina Jihlava II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start Brno
1.85
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 19 away

creates per match

Start Brno
2.38
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.00

allows per match

Start Brno
1.38
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.32

finishing

Start Brno+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start Brno ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Start Brno or draw
64%
Start Brno or Vysočina Jihlava II
78%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
58%

Winning margin

Start Brno wins by 2+
23%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Start Brno 1+ goals
84%
Start Brno 2+ goals
55%
Start Brno 3+ goals
28%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
82%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
50%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Start Brno (draw refunded)
54%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start Brno at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start Brno attack 2.38 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.85

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.00 + Start Brno defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Start Brno scores more
42%
level
22%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
36%

Start Brno at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Start Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Start Brno vs Vysočina Jihlava II

Start Brno beat Vysočina Jihlava II 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Hřiště Loosova in Brno.