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Vysočina Jihlava II vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
FT
2 – 1
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
F. Shudeiwa 90+2'
S. Chocholaty 72'
D. Prerovsky 83'
9/26/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 9Stadion Na Stoupách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II24%
×Draw22%
Slovan Rosice54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.27
Slovan Rosice
1.99

Slovan Rosice creates 57% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 66 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.29
Slovan Rosice
1.27

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.71
Slovan Rosice
1.24

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw
46%
Vysočina Jihlava II or Slovan Rosice
78%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
76%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
10%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
72%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
36%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
14%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
86%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
59%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
31%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 21 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 1.29 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
24%
level
22%
Slovan Rosice scores more
54%

Slovan Rosice at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
P. Novak
28'
R. Stefanek
43'
J. Krejci
53'
M. Fila
64'
J. Araujo-Wilson← J. Araujo-Wilson
65'
T. Praks← T. Praks
65'
P. Drbal← P. Drbal
72'
S. Chocholaty
80'
T. Dobrovodsky← T. Dobrovodsky
83'
L. Kolcava
83'
D. Prerovsky
86'
D. Prerovsky← P. Sip
87'
K. Crhan← K. Crhan
87'
A. Savi← A. Savi
90+1'
P. Mikuska← P. Mikuska
90+2'
F. Shudeiwa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vysočina Jihlava II vs Slovan Rosice

Vysočina Jihlava II beat Slovan Rosice 2-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 26, 2021.

Goals: S. Chocholaty (72'), D. Prerovsky (83'), F. Shudeiwa (90+2').

The match was played at Stadion Na Stoupách in Jihlava.