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Slovan Rosice vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
FT
2 – 1
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
5/1/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 26Hřiště FC Slovan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Slovan Rosice69%
×Draw19%
Vysočina Jihlava II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Rosice
2.17
Vysočina Jihlava II
0.77

Slovan Rosice creates 182% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 23 away

creates per match

Slovan Rosice
1.60
Vysočina Jihlava II
0.70

allows per match

Slovan Rosice
0.85
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.74

finishing

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Rosice ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Slovan Rosice or draw
88%
Slovan Rosice or Vysočina Jihlava II
81%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
31%

Winning margin

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
45%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
89%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
64%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
36%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
54%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
18%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
85%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Rosice at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.85 · 68 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Rosice attack 1.60 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.17

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 0.70 + Slovan Rosice defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Slovan Rosice scores more
69%
level
19%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
12%

Slovan Rosice at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Rosice vs Vysočina Jihlava II

Slovan Rosice beat Vysočina Jihlava II 2-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Hřiště FC Slovan in Rosice.