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Vysočina Jihlava II vs Sigma Olomouc II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
CANC
09:30
Sigma Olomouc II
Sigma Olomouc II
3/14/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 11Jiráskova UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II17%
×Draw18%
Sigma Olomouc II65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.18
Sigma Olomouc II
2.46

Sigma Olomouc II creates 108% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 49 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.29
Sigma Olomouc II
2.22

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.71
Sigma Olomouc II
1.06

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Sigma Olomouc II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw
35%
Vysočina Jihlava II or Sigma Olomouc II
82%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc II
83%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
6%
Sigma Olomouc II wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
69%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
33%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
12%
Sigma Olomouc II 1+ goals
91%
Sigma Olomouc II 2+ goals
70%
Sigma Olomouc II 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
21%
Sigma Olomouc II (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 21 matches

Sigma Olomouc II away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 1.29 + Sigma Olomouc II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sigma Olomouc II attack 2.22 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
17%
level
18%
Sigma Olomouc II scores more
65%

Sigma Olomouc II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysočina Jihlava II face Sigma Olomouc II (3. liga - MSFL)

3. liga - MSFL returns with Vysočina Jihlava II hosting Sigma Olomouc II. Match starts March 14, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vysočina Jihlava II host Sigma Olomouc II at Jiráskova UMT.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.